Yeah. Honestly, I'd suspect it too even if no one wants to speak up. A death doesn't just happen without someone knowing something, and whether it was someone in the Guards or the Syndicate - I'm sort of less inclined to think it's the Syndicate at this point, just for how much they try to help their people.

[His tone tries to stress that the most - for all he's heard at the soup kitchens and on the streets, the Syndicate are an organization that has been acting more for the peoples best interest, rather than lining their pockets, even if it would be easy to with so much trust built into them now. Still, Noct doesn't think it's the Crown itself - Kathashun. So the last option becomes the Guards, who... ngh.

He has a sick feeling in his gut, some fleeting memory of he's in your hands now.]

Going with his request to get him to Jalin seems the best option. Physically get him there, whether the Guards like it or not.